2011年7月11日 星期一

This time is different

五月廿九日我篇嘢最尾寫到: "如果金價短期內創新高,咁就大件事囉。點大件事法?等佢真係成事先再講啦"
當時諗住隔個禮拜就創新高,點知原來要磿多成個幾月。點都好,依家仍然係好大件事。乜事呢? We maybe seeing a Sea Change here. 黄金過去十年嚟從未試過响夏季創新高!買方力量太強大,they just can't wait.
睇睇由2003年開始黄金 (Using GLD as a proxy) 每個調整嘅數據先:
1) 浪頂到浪底跌幅: 10.8% to 31.5%
2) 浪頂到浪底跌幅下跌時間: 33 days to 241 days
3) 由上一浪頂跌到浪底再升穿上一浪頂後不再回頭時間: 217 days to 568 days
假設調整已經完成,記住,哩個只係假設,因為我哋永遠都係事後先知調整原來已經完咗,例如如果金價下週跌穿$1,577,咁哩個假設己經唔成立。Anyway, let's ASSUME the correction is over, how does this correction compare to the previous ones?
今次由五月二日開始嘅調整:
1) 浪頂到浪底跌幅: 7.2%
2) 浪頂到浪底跌幅下跌時間: 3 days
3) 由上一浪頂跌到浪底再升穿上一浪頂後不再回頭時間: 72 days
如果哩個調整事後證明真係以經完咗的話,then this correction 將係近十年牛市中最輕微嘅一個調整。Things are not the same anymore.

A gold expert said $1,764 is the key number to watch. 預期另一場溶血戰 around this number. If gold surges above this figure, gold will explode. As another expert once said, gold will explode not to the roof, it will explode to the MOON! 我唔知哩個專家點得出哩個數字,我淨係記得六月十四日我篇嘢寫過D咁嘅嘢 "有黃金大好友繼續話今年夏季 is differentgold would defy seasonality and go to new high in this summer. 依家咁嘅市場氣氛好難想像哩樣嘢会發生啝!不過起碼佢俾到D希望D持有黃金嘅人。冇D嘩眾取寵嘅話題又好悶嘅,有冇可能發生又係另一回事。" Well, 一個月前仲係天方夜談,依家...Never say never.

So, this time is indeed different. Sit tight!

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